Price Expectation – Nike Air Jordan 1 Travis Scott Cactus Jack

So it’s the day after release date…where’s the re-sell price dip though?  Well traditionally speaking, when release day comes it generally kills the re-sell market for the early pairs because of the huge influx of supply hitting the market.  If you need any evidence of this, the Cactus jack 4s was the best example.  Early pairs sold for as high as $2,000 2 weeks before the release and literally on release date, the resell price dropped to $400.  I’m not sure if some of you out there were expecting the same result this time around for the 1s, but I can tell you that didn’t happen for sure and probably won’t.  So what’s different this time around?

Maybe let’s start off with the fact that quantity was lower this time around compared to the 4s, but more importantly it was the hype that was built up before the actual release that made the biggest difference.  For the past year I have been saying Travis is the next icon for Nike in terms of collaborations.  Almost a decade ago it was Kanye…the last few years was Virgil with Off White, and the next few years will most likely be Travis Scott.  When the 4s were released, it was still a market dominated by Off White.  Anything that was NOT off white didn’t really trend well in the resell market.  This made sense because capital can only be concentrated so much in one area, which means not everything can have an insane re-sell price in the after market.  I still remember the time when the 4s released that the price dropped so dramatically that NO ONE wanted pairs…which ultimately made me accumulate over 100 pairs shortly after release date.  Do I still have 100 pairs…?  Maybe….but that’s not the point 🙂

But why has prices for the Jordan 1 released on Saturday still holding up in terms of resell price and actually started to trend up instead of down with the increased supply?  There’s no right or wrong answer because NO ONE will have the right answer, but in my opinion prices are starting to trend up because buyers were actually holding off until AFTER the release date before giving into the resell price.  It makes sense because if you had a chance at a raffle, you would be on the sidelines until you realized you took Ls on the 50 raffle entries you entered that your chance at retail has gone to zero.  From an economics stand point, this means there’s probably a HUGE influx of demand after the release date relative to the supply, which is supporting the market price where it is now.

On the flip side, if you caught the W on the raffle and copped for retail, there’s a high chance you wouldn’t flip it right away either if you weren’t urgently in need of cash.  The reasoning is these very people are expecting prices to keep going up and for them to hold longer means they can profit more.  The only people that are selling these shoes right now are people that have zero interest in sneakers and are simply selling for the sake of a quick riskless profit that didn’t require much work.

It might be early to jump to the conclusion and say these will reach OFF white 1 Chicago status in the near term, but I certainly see the potential in these getting there.  They’re nice, but personally i’m not a fan of them and I don’t foresee myself wearing them.  However, this shoe has every characteristic to reach a $2,000 value by the end of the year if the Nike continues to push Travis to the top.