Price Expectation – Nike Air Jordan 4 Travis Scott Cactus Jack

We are less than a few days in since the release date of Travis Scott’s first “Official” Jordan brand cross over (if you don’t count the Nike Trunner).  The obvious consensus from everyone on these are “They will NOT Hold up in Price”.  Well… I’m not here to add value by stating the obvious – that’s not my job.  My job is give my opinion on where it will trend on a short and long term basis.  Moreover, I do this on a regular basis to research and determine whether a shoe is worth investing in or not.

Let’s start with the basics – Supply & Demand.  The supply on these were obviously much less than your typical JB release.  As you can tell from the FootAction store release locator below, the release on these were relatively concentrated in only a few spots across the US.  Even though the locator doesn’t disclose the amount of pairs dropped at each location, you can kind of piece together a general idea of how many pairs actually got released.  I’ve also posted an image of the store locator on the upcoming Jordan 14 Last Shot store locator release.  I think the pictures are self-explanatory to say the least. However, one thing I did notice differently and have heard rumours of was the distribution of pairs across locations were sporadic.  One being Houston being heavily concentrated and Toronto (VERY RARE) also receiving a lot of pairs. If 306 Yonge had about 500 pairs to sell, that’s quite a lot of quantity for a release drops like this.

Short vs. Long term? This question obviously depends where you stand in the market.  If you were lining up on Saturday morning hoping for a quick flip, you definitely want to get your money back as soon as possible because you don’t want to take risk, but your window to making some decent cheddar is running short.  How come?  Because the number of people in line trying to do the same thing of looking for a quick flip OUTWEIGHS the number of people lining up hoping to buy a pair for personal consumption.  I’ve been paying attention to local re-sell prices and prices were dropping as fast as DropZone.  Prices literally plummeted quickly in just a few hours from $800 CAD to $550 and even as low as $500 from certain sellers looking to just get their money back.  Situations like these usually scare off the rookie re-sellers because they don’t want to take risk and hold up all their money in this release.  They need money to turn fast so that they can fund the upcoming release, which is literally 1.5 weeks away when the UNC OFF White 1s drop.  For more experience re-sellers, this is usually a time you either go heavy and take advantage of the panic low pricing OR just stay away from this release entirely.  If you wanted to ask my opinion, I’m more of the prior than the latter for various reasons.

I believe prices will stay near the $500-$550 CAD ($400-$450 USD) range in the next few months. I don’t anticipate it going any lower than this price point because any lower, it’ll get snatched up by re-sellers that have capacity to buy and hold the shoes for the longer term.  Second thing I look at is the aesthetic of the shoes minus out all the marketing.  How often do we see an eye popping colour like this on a Jordan 4 model?  This reminds me of the Lightning Yellow Jordan 4s released back in 2006.  The lightning 4 wasn’t that highly demanded in the beginning as in my opinion yellow wasn’t a desired colour back in the day from a fashion standpoint…but in the past few years, the lighting 4s have been a highly sought after pair of sneaker.  To put things into perspective, without Travis Scott attached to the name, Lightning 4s still fetched close to $1k for a DS pair.  Though I can’t say for certain when prices will move up, but in the long term I have no reason to believe it won’t go up as long as Travis doesn’t pull an ASAP Bari from VLONE.

To sum up, there are many factors that pushes the resell prices low right now, but you have to understand June 2018 will be one of the craziest release in terms of heat dropping in 1 month.  You got the Travis Scott, UNC OFF White 1s, Levis Black and White and possibly Off white Prestos White and black.  Guys! This is a lot of fking heat that is dropping in such a short time period.  The general population and average Joe doesn’t have that much money to drop on shoes especially on shoes of this caliber in such a short time.   Let’s just assume you were able to cop each pair at retail at $250 USD (though chances are very slim), you’re still looking to drop $1,500 on just 6 pairs of shoes in the month of June.  A lot of us can’t do it.  Even for a lot of adults that have full time jobs, $1,500 is a stretch as we all have bills to pay.  So if you ask me, I think one of the bigger reasons why prices for these Cactus Jacks are depressed in the short term is because consumers are forced to rationalize, which in most past releases you don’t really have to because the next big release is months away.   I personally would rank the Cactus Jack last relative to the Levis and off white releases, but that doesn’t mean I don’t like them as they are still good shoes.  In this particular scenario and time, we just simply have MORE sellers than buyers, but in the long run demand for these will eventually come back and so would prices.

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